Nah, HD-DVDs are likely to come out ahead. For one thing, Xbox 360 seems to be more popular than PS3, and has an HD-DVD player option instead of Blu-ray. That and Sony, who is producing the Blu-ray discs, isn't allowing porn to be distributed on Blu-ray. Porn was the main reason VHS became the standard instead of the technically superior Beta, so it will probably do the same thing for HD-DVDs.
Sony will make sure they flood the market. After the near Failiure of the UMD they will be predding hard to get the Blue Ray Disks up and running.
I don't really see the point in CD's, DVD'd, HD-DVD's or Blueray disks anymore. You might as well download everything. I always said the best thing to do would be to see a game ready installed on a small external hard-drive so its literally Plug and Play.